Mid-Year Check-In

GTHA Real Estate Mid-Year Check-In
How Has the Market Really Performed in the First Half of 2026?

July 12, 2026

If you've been following real estate headlines this year, you might think the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) housing market is in trouble. Depending on the day, you've probably read that prices are falling, buyers are hesitant, sellers are frustrated, or that it's the "worst market in years".

But headlines rarely tell the full story.

Now that we've reached the halfway point of 2026, it's a good time to step back and look at what has actually happened in the local housing market – and what it means for buyers and sellers heading into the second half of the year.

So... How Is the Market Really Doing?

The short answer? Better than many people realize.

While 2026 didn't start with a surge in activity, the market has gradually improved as the year has progressed. The first few months of the year were relatively quiet. Buyers remained cautious, affordability continued to be a challenge, and many homeowners chose to wait rather than list their properties.

But by late spring and early summer, the market began showing clear signs of stabilization.

June marked one of the strongest months we've seen in over a year:

• Home sales across the GTHA increased 9.4% year-over-year in June 2026 compared
  to June 2025. More specifically:

o +7.3% YoY in Hamilton (649 homes sold)
o +11.0% YoY in Burlington (292 homes sold)
o +16.0% YoY in Oakville (283 homes sold)
o +5.3% YoY in Toronto (2,443 homes sold)

• New listings dropped nearly 13%, reducing the amount of available inventory.
• Prices continued to be relatively balanced overall, but there were some highlights:

o Average Sale Price of a Townhome in Oakville, +4.4% YoY
o Average Sale Price of a Condo in Hamilton, +8.7% MoM
o Overall Average Sale Price in Burlington, +2.0% YoY

Rather than witnessing a market collapse, what you’re really seeing is a market that’s been slowly finding its footing.

Is the Market as Bad as the Headlines Suggest?

No. News headlines often highlight just one particular statistic that’s weak at any given time, while ignoring other markers. What makes this problematic is that looking at just one measurement never tells the whole story and doesn’t always reflect what's happening on the ground.

Yes, in many communities, average sales prices remain below where they were a year or two ago. The average GTA home sold for approximately $1.06-million in June, down about 3.9% year-over-year. But, the actual experience in your community may vary from a generalized figure the entire region.

Further, price declines have been relatively modest considering where interest rates have been over the past few years. What's more important is that many neighbourhoods have seen prices stabilize and some well-priced homes have even attracted multiple offers. Buyers are still out there. Nearly 300 homes sold in each of Oakville and Burlington in June, and almost 650 in Hamilton.

In short, the market isn't crashing. It's simply become much more balanced.

Buyers Finally Have More Choice

One of the biggest stories so far in 2026 has been the return of buyer choice. Unlike the ultra-competitive markets of 2021 and early 2022, today's buyers have time to:

• Compare properties
• Negotiate on price
• Include financing and inspection conditions
• Make informed decisions without feeling rushed

For many buyers, this has been the healthiest market we've seen in years. The days of unconditional offers on almost every home are largely behind us.

Sellers Need a Better Strategy Than Ever

For sellers, 2026 has been a reminder that pricing matters.

Homes that are:

• priced accurately,
• professionally marketed, and
• presented well

are still selling successfully. And those with unique attributes that optimally highlighted are likewise attracting elevated levels of attention. In contrast, homes that are overpriced often sit on the market, require price reductions, and ultimately sell for less than they might have with the right strategy from the beginning.

The things seller must remember is that today's buyers are informed. They know what comparable homes have sold for, and they're willing to wait if something doesn't represent good value.

The Condo Market Has Been the Slowest Segment

Not every part of the market has performed equally. And while there are bright spots, condominium apartments have continued to face challenges throughout much of 2026, especially in Toronto.

Higher investor costs, changing rental dynamics, and increased affordability pressures – particularly where inflation is concerned – have contributed to softer demand compared to detached homes and townhouses.

TRREB's first-quarter Condo Market Report showed condo sales were down year-over-year, even as active inventory remained elevated, giving condo buyers considerably more negotiating power.

For buyers, that creates opportunities. For sellers, it means careful pricing and strong marketing are more important than ever.

What Have Been the Biggest Highlights of 2026 So Far?

Several trends have stood out during the first half of the year:

1. Buyer confidence is slowly returning

Sales have consistently improved through the spring, suggesting more buyers are becoming comfortable re-entering the market. Just look at the sales volume in June.

2. Inventory is tightening

While buyers still have options, new listings have declined significantly from last year, helping bring supply and demand closer into balance. This is shown in Months of Inventory measurements.

3. Prices are stabilizing

Although average prices remain below last year's levels, the pace of declines has certainly moderated, with some neighbourhoods or property types already showing renewed competition and, in some cases, a degree of growth.

4. Every neighbourhood is behaving differently

The "GTHA market" isn't one market.

Downtown Toronto condos, suburban detached homes in Burlington, Hamilton family neighbourhoods, and Oakville luxury homes are all experiencing different levels of demand. Local market knowledge matters much more than broad national headlines.

What Could the Second Half of 2026 Look Like?

If current trends continue, we could see:

• balanced market conditions,
• improving sales activity,
• continued stabilization in home prices, and
• increased competition for desirable properties.

That doesn't necessarily mean prices will rise dramatically, but they probably won’t decease dramatically either. Instead, we're more likely moving toward a healthier market where buyersband sellers have more equal negotiating power than we've seen in several years.

Even TRREB's 2026 outlook anticipated softer pricing in the first half of the year followed by greater stability as market conditions improved.

Final Thoughts

The first half of 2026 hasn't been spectacular – but it certainly hasn't been as bleak as many headlines have suggested. The GTHA housing market appears to be transitioning from uncertainty toward stability.

Buyers have more opportunities than they've had in years.

Sellers who understand today's market and price strategically are still achieving successful results.

As always, every neighbourhood tells a different story. If you're thinking about buying or selling this year, the most important information isn't what's happening across the entire GTHA – it's what's happening in your community and on your street.

And that's where local expertise makes all the difference.

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